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Earnings Recap

Q3 2025 Earnings Season Roundup: Beat Rates, Surprises & Key Takeaways

Catalyst Research•January 10, 2026

Q3 2025 Earnings Season: Complete Market Roundup

Q3 2025 earnings season wrapped with strong results across most sectors. Here's the comprehensive analysis of beat rates, surprises, and key themes.

Q3 2025 Earnings Overview

| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | |--------|---------|---------|---------| | S&P 500 Beat Rate | 78% | 75% | 77% | | Average EPS Surprise | +6.2% | +4.8% | +5.3% | | Revenue Beat Rate | 62% | 59% | 60% | | YoY EPS Growth | +8.4% | +10.2% | +6.1% |

Takeaway: Q3 2025 beat rates exceeded historical averages (73%), signaling continued corporate strength.

Sector-by-Sector Performance

Technology (Best Performer)

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Beat Rate | 92% | | Avg Surprise | +12.4% | | Top Performer | GOOGL (+15.2%) |

Theme: AI monetization exceeded expectations. Cloud spending resilient.

Communication Services

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Beat Rate | 85% | | Avg Surprise | +9.8% | | Top Performer | META (+14.9%) |

Theme: Digital advertising recovered. Streaming profitability improved.

Financials

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Beat Rate | 82% | | Avg Surprise | +7.2% | | Top Performer | JPM (+9.0%) |

Theme: Net interest income stabilized. Credit quality held up better than feared.

Healthcare

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Beat Rate | 75% | | Avg Surprise | +4.1% | | Top Performer | LLY (+18.3%) |

Theme: GLP-1 drugs driving pharma growth. Medical device demand strong.

Consumer Discretionary

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Beat Rate | 68% | | Avg Surprise | +3.2% | | Top Performer | AMZN (+25.4%) | | Bottom Performer | TSLA (+24.1%*) |

*Tesla's beat was a reversal from prior misses

Theme: Mixed results. High-end consumers resilient, lower-income consumers cautious.

Industrials

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Beat Rate | 71% | | Avg Surprise | +2.8% | | Top Performer | CAT (+5.2%) |

Theme: Infrastructure spending supporting demand. Supply chains normalized.

Energy

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Beat Rate | 65% | | Avg Surprise | +1.2% | | Mixed Performance | XOM, CVX |

Theme: Lower oil prices compressed margins. Refining spreads normalized.

Biggest Earnings Surprises

Top 10 Positive Surprises (S&P 500)

| Company | Ticker | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Surprise | |---------|--------|---------|-----------|----------| | Amazon | AMZN | $1.14 | $1.43 | +25.4% | | Tesla | TSLA | $0.58 | $0.72 | +24.1% | | Eli Lilly | LLY | $3.20 | $3.78 | +18.3% | | Alphabet | GOOGL | $1.84 | $2.12 | +15.2% | | Meta | META | $5.25 | $6.03 | +14.9% | | Palantir | PLTR | $0.08 | $0.10 | +12.5% | | JPMorgan | JPM | $4.01 | $4.37 | +9.0% | | Microsoft | MSFT | $3.10 | $3.30 | +6.5% | | NVIDIA | NVDA | $0.75 | $0.81 | +8.0% | | Salesforce | CRM | $2.35 | $2.56 | +8.9% |

Notable Misses

| Company | Ticker | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Surprise | |---------|--------|---------|-----------|----------| | Intel | INTC | $0.22 | $0.12 | -45.5% | | Boeing | BA | -$1.10 | -$1.78 | -61.8% | | Nike | NKE | $0.82 | $0.70 | -14.6% |

Key Themes from Q3 2025

1. AI Is Generating Real Revenue

Companies with clear AI monetization strategies outperformed:

  • Microsoft: Copilot enterprise adoption driving Azure beat
  • Google: AI search and Cloud AI services exceeding projections
  • NVIDIA: Data center demand overwhelming supply
  • Salesforce: Agentforce platform driving deal upsells

2. Consumer Bifurcation

High-end vs. low-end consumer divergence intensified:

  • Winners: Amazon, Costco, luxury brands
  • Challenges: Dollar stores, discount retailers, casual dining

3. Banking Resilience

Despite rate cut fears, banks performed well:

  • Net interest income held up as cuts were gradual
  • Credit losses below reserves
  • Investment banking rebounding
  • Wealth management growing

4. Healthcare GLP-1 Dominance

Obesity drugs dominated healthcare earnings:

  • Eli Lilly Mounjaro/Zepbound: Supply still constraint
  • Novo Nordisk: Global expansion accelerating
  • Impact on: Food companies, medical devices, insurance

5. China Remains a Headwind

Companies with significant China exposure struggled:

  • Apple: Services growth offset hardware weakness
  • NVIDIA: Export restrictions limiting sales
  • Tesla: Market share losses to BYD

Earnings Calendar Performance Metrics

How did specific report days perform?

Busiest Earnings Days (Q3 Season)

| Date | Reports | Beat Rate | Avg Move | |------|---------|-----------|----------| | Oct 29 | MSFT, GOOGL | 100% | +4.2% | | Oct 30 | META | 100% | +6.1% | | Oct 31 | AAPL, AMZN | 100% | +5.4% | | Oct 23 | TSLA | 100% | +21.9% | | Nov 20 | NVDA | 100% | +5.4% |

Day-of-Week Analysis

| Day | Avg Beat Rate | Avg Surprise | |-----|---------------|--------------| | Monday | 74% | +4.8% | | Tuesday | 79% | +6.1% | | Wednesday | 81% | +7.2% | | Thursday | 77% | +5.5% | | Friday | 75% | +4.2% |

Insight: Mid-week reporters tend to beat at higher rates (better management timing).

Guidance Trends

Raised Guidance (Positive)

  • NVDA: Increased Q4 revenue outlook
  • AMZN: Raised operating income guidance
  • META: Higher 2025 revenue range

Maintained Guidance (Neutral)

  • AAPL: In-line with prior outlook
  • MSFT: Reiterated Azure growth targets
  • GOOGL: Confirmed capex plans

Lowered Guidance (Negative)

  • INTC: Reduced FY outlook significantly
  • BA: Withdrew full-year guidance
  • NKE: Cut revenue expectations

What This Means for Q4 2025 Earnings

Based on Q3 2025 patterns:

Expectations Heading into Q4

  1. Beat rates should hold: 75-80% likely
  2. AI commentary critical: Watch for adoption updates
  3. Consumer spending: Holiday season is key test
  4. Fed rate path: Will guide bank NII commentary

Calendar Highlights

| Date | Key Reports | |------|-------------| | Jan 15 | JPM, WFC, GS (Banks kick off) | | Jan 28 | MSFT, META, TSLA (Mega-cap week) | | Jan 29 | AAPL (Holiday quarter) | | Feb 4-5 | GOOGL, AMD, AMZN | | Feb 25 | NVDA (AI bellwether) |

Lessons for Investors

What Q3 2025 Taught Us

  1. Quality Matters: High-margin businesses (NVDA, META) beat consistently
  2. Guidance > Beats: Stock reactions depend more on forward outlook
  3. Sector Selection: Tech and Healthcare outperformed
  4. Surprises Are Priced: Expected beats don't move stocks as much
  5. Misses Hurt More: Negative surprises punished 2-3x harder

Trading Implications

  • Pre-earnings runs are real (momentum into report)
  • Post-earnings drift persists (direction holds for 5-10 days)
  • Options overpriced for mega-caps (IV crush common)
  • Sector sympathy trades work (NVDA beat lifts AMD)

Track all earnings on the Catalyst Calendar. View individual stock pages for detailed analysis. This is not financial advice.