NVDA Q1 2026 Earnings Preview

NVIDIA reports Q1 2026 earnings on February 26, 2026 after market close. Here's what traders need to know.

Key Metrics to Watch

• Revenue Estimate: $38.5B (consensus)
• EPS Estimate: $0.89
• Data Center Revenue: $32B expected
• Gaming Revenue: $3.2B expected

What's Driving the Stock

AI Demand Remains Strong

Data center revenue continues to be the primary growth driver, fueled by:

• Enterprise AI adoption accelerating
• Cloud providers expanding GPU capacity
• Blackwell architecture ramp-up

Gaming Segment Stabilizing

After a challenging 2024, the gaming segment is showing signs of recovery:

• RTX 50 series launch in Q1
• Strong preorder numbers reported
• China market reopening benefits

Risk Factors

1. Supply constraints - TSMC capacity allocation
2. China export restrictions - Continued regulatory headwinds
3. Valuation concerns - Trading at 35x forward earnings

Historical Earnings Reactions

| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Next-Day Move | |---------|--------------|---------------| | Q4 2025 | +12% | +8.2% | | Q3 2025 | +8% | +5.1% | | Q2 2025 | +15% | +12.4% |

Trading Implications

Options market is pricing in a ±9.5% move post-earnings. Consider:

• Implied volatility is elevated vs. historical average
• Put/call ratio suggesting hedging activity
• Key support at $850, resistance at $1,000

Bottom Line

NVIDIA remains the bellwether for AI infrastructure spending. The key question isn't whether they beat estimates—it's whether the guidance can sustain the multiple.

Watch for commentary on Blackwell production ramp and China revenue outlook.

This is not financial advice. Do your own research before trading.