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NVIDIA Earnings History: 100% Beat Rate & Stock Performance Analysis

Catalyst Research•January 14, 2026

NVIDIA Earnings History: The Most Consistent AI Stock

NVIDIA has delivered a flawless 100% earnings beat rate since the AI boom began. Here's the complete earnings history, beat analysis, and what it means for traders.

NVDA Earnings Beat Rate: By the Numbers

Over the past 8 quarters, NVIDIA has:

  • Beat earnings: 8/8 quarters (100%)
  • Average EPS surprise: +7.2%
  • Largest beat: +8.0% (Q3 FY2026)
  • Smallest beat: +6.1% (Q4 FY2025)

This consistency is unprecedented for a mega-cap semiconductor stock.

Complete NVIDIA Earnings History (2024-2025)

| Quarter | Report Date | EPS Actual | EPS Est | Surprise | Revenue | |---------|-------------|-----------|---------|----------|---------| | Q3 FY2026 | Nov 20, 2025 | $0.81 | $0.75 | +8.0% | $35.1B | | Q2 FY2026 | Aug 28, 2025 | $0.68 | $0.64 | +6.3% | $30.0B | | Q1 FY2026 | May 28, 2025 | $0.61 | $0.57 | +7.0% | $26.0B | | Q4 FY2025 | Feb 26, 2025 | $0.52 | $0.49 | +6.1% | $22.1B |

Why NVIDIA Beats Every Quarter

1. Conservative Management Guidance

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang consistently guides below internal expectations. This "sandbagging" strategy ensures:

  • Street estimates stay achievable
  • Positive surprises boost stock momentum
  • Confidence in execution remains high

2. AI Demand Exceeds All Forecasts

Data center customers continue to outpace GPU supply:

  • Hyperscalers (Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS) expanding capacity
  • Enterprise AI adoption accelerating faster than expected
  • Sovereign AI initiatives from governments worldwide
  • Blackwell architecture demand overwhelming production

3. Pricing Power

Unlike most chip companies, NVIDIA can raise prices without demand destruction:

  • H100 GPUs sell at 3-5x competitors
  • Blackwell pricing even higher
  • Software and networking upsells add to ASP

Post-Earnings Stock Performance

Historical next-day moves after NVIDIA earnings:

| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Next-Day Move | 5-Day Move | |---------|--------------|---------------|------------| | Q3 FY2026 | +8.0% | +5.4% | +8.2% | | Q2 FY2026 | +6.3% | +6.1% | +4.5% | | Q1 FY2026 | +7.0% | +9.3% | +12.1% | | Q4 FY2025 | +6.1% | +16.4% | +14.8% |

Average next-day move: +9.3%

Key Pattern: Larger beats don't always mean larger moves. Guidance and forward commentary matter more than the beat itself.

Earnings Reaction Catalysts

What moves the stock after NVDA reports:

Bullish Triggers

  • Data center revenue beat >5%
  • Guidance raise for next quarter
  • New product ramp commentary (Blackwell)
  • Customer order backlog expansion

Bearish Triggers

  • China revenue concerns
  • Gross margin compression
  • Supply constraint commentary
  • Competition mentions (AMD MI300)

Q4 FY2026 Earnings Preview

Report Date: February 25, 2026 (after market close)

Current Estimates:

  • EPS: $1.52 (consensus)
  • Revenue: $65.42B (consensus)
  • EPS Growth: +62.4% YoY
  • Revenue Growth: +66.3% YoY

Key Metrics to Watch:

  1. Data Center Revenue: Expected $55B+ (up from $35B in Q3)
  2. Blackwell Contribution: First full quarter of Blackwell revenue
  3. Gaming Segment: RTX 50-series launch impact
  4. China Revenue: Export restriction headwinds

Historical Volatility Around Earnings

NVIDIA options typically price in significant moves:

| Period | Implied Move | Actual Move | |--------|--------------|-------------| | Q3 FY2026 | ±8.5% | +5.4% | | Q2 FY2026 | ±9.2% | +6.1% | | Q1 FY2026 | ±10.1% | +9.3% | | Q4 FY2025 | ±11.0% | +16.4% |

Takeaway: Options have underpriced NVDA moves in 2 of 4 recent quarters.

NVDA Earnings Calendar

| Fiscal Quarter | Report Date | Status | |----------------|-------------|--------| | Q4 FY2026 | Feb 25, 2026 | Upcoming | | Q1 FY2027 | May 2026 (est) | TBD | | Q2 FY2027 | Aug 2026 (est) | TBD |

Trading Considerations

Before Earnings

  • IV typically peaks 1-2 days before report
  • Stock often rallies into earnings on momentum
  • Put/call ratios indicate hedging activity

After Earnings

  • Gap direction usually determined by guidance, not beat
  • Continuation moves common for 3-5 days
  • Sector sympathy trades (AMD, AVGO, MRVL)

The 100% Beat Streak

NVIDIA's perfect beat rate creates an interesting dynamic:

  • Analysts keep raising estimates
  • Beats are "expected" and priced in
  • The bar gets higher each quarter
  • Eventually, the streak will end

Risk: When NVDA finally misses (or merely meets), the reaction could be severe given the embedded expectations.

Conclusion

NVIDIA's earnings track record is the best among mega-cap tech stocks. The 100% beat rate, combined with 6-8% average surprises, demonstrates exceptional execution and conservative guidance practices.

However, with estimates now calling for $1.52 EPS (up from $0.52 just one year ago), the 2026 bar is significantly higher. Watch Q4 FY2026 results on February 25, 2026 for signs of whether the AI leader can maintain its streak.

Track NVIDIA earnings on the Catalyst Calendar. View detailed NVDA stock page. This is not financial advice.